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October 22, 2019

CFL Simulation: Riders are on the rise after latest win

TORONTO — While the top two teams in the West Division were closely matched when it came to the CFL Simulation a week ago, one team received a big-time boost to its odds with a win in Week 19.

After dropping their last game to the Calgary Stampeders, the Saskatchewan Roughriders’ odds to win the West went down ahead of Week 19. However, their victory over BC pushed their chances to take the division crown back up to nearly 67 percent. The Stamps also won, but they have just a 33 percent shot of finishing first.

Saskatchewan boosted both the odds to appear in and win the 107th Grey Cup presented by Shaw by over 20 percent. They also feature in three of the five most likely matchups in the Grey Cup game.

As per usual, the Hamilton Tiger-Cats also improved their odds with their team-record 13th win of the campaign.

The Tabbies, Riders, and Stamps hold down the best odds to be in the Grey Cup, leaving the likes of Winnipeg, Montreal, and Edmonton with under a 10 percent chance to appear, according to the sim.

While their chances aren’t the highest to appear or win the championship, the Edmonton Eskimos featured in the fifth most likely championship game showdown, clashing with the Riders 2 percent of the time. That would be the first occasion in which the championship would feature two West Division teams going head to head.


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The model considers the following:

  • Each team’s current win-loss record.
  • Opponents already played (including whether it was a home or away game).
  • The margin of victory (or loss) in games previously played in the season.
  • Remaining opponents to be played (including whether those games are home or away).
  • Most recent results (a recent win is weighted more heavily than a win back in Week 1, for example)

The model calculates each team’s probability of victory in each remaining game. It then simulates 10,000 replications of the remaining regular-season schedule and resulting playoff bracket (including the possibility of a playoff crossover team).  For each replication, the model keeps track of a number of performance metrics (for example, which teams earned home playoff games, which teams appeared in the Grey Cup, etc.).

For instance, if Winnipeg won the Grey Cup in 1,990 of the 10,000 replications, then its Grey Cup victory probability would be 1,990/10,000 = 19.90%.

The model is updated weekly based on the results of games played that week.

Here’s a look at how all the teams stack up:

Odds to make playoffs
Team (Projected 2019 record) Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats (15-3) Clinched
Saskatchewan Roughriders (13-5) Clinched
Calgary Stampeders (12-6) Clinched
Winnipeg Blue Bombers (11-7) Clinched
Montreal Alouettes (10-8) Clinched
Edmonton Eskimos (8-10) Clinched
BC Lions (5-13) Eliminated
Toronto Argonauts (4-14) Eliminated
Ottawa REDBLACKS (3-15) Eliminated

 

Odds to host playoff game
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats Clinched
Montreal Alouettes Clinched
Saskatchewan Roughriders 98.96%
Calgary Stampeders 78.05%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 22.99%
Edmonton Eskimos Eliminated
Ottawa REDBLACKS Eliminated
Toronto Argonauts Eliminated
BC Lions Eliminated

Odds to win East
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats Clinched
Montreal Alouettes Eliminated
Ottawa REDBLACKS Eliminated
Toronto Argonauts Eliminated

 

Odds to win West
Team Projection
Saskatchewan Roughriders 66.96%
Calgary Stampeders 33.04%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers Eliminated
Edmonton Eskimos Eliminated
BC Lions Eliminated

Odds to appear in 107th Grey Cup
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 91.51%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 72.37%
Calgary Stampeders 21.45%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 6.19%
Montreal Alouettes 5.62%
Edmonton Eskimos 2.86%
BC Lions Eliminated
Toronto Argonauts Eliminated
Ottawa REDBLACKS Eliminated

Odds to Win the 107th Grey Cup
Team Projection
Hamilton Tiger-Cats 44.52%
Saskatchewan Roughriders 41.99%
Calgary Stampeders 9.49%
Winnipeg Blue Bombers 2.52%
Montreal Alouettes 0.91%
Edmonton Eskimos 0.57%
BC Lions Eliminated
Toronto Argonauts Eliminated
Ottawa REDBLACKS Eliminated

Most likely matchups in 107th Grey Cup
Teams Projection
Saskatchewan-Hamilton 66.26%
Calgary-Hamilton 19.61%
Winnipeg-Hamilton 5.64%
Saskatchewan-Montreal 4.07%
Saskatchewan-Edmonton 2.04%